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# Judging the occurrence of events

After reading Chapter 22 from Elementary and Middle School Mathematics: Teaching
Developmentally (Van de Walle et al., 2013), discuss the following (Questions taken from Van de
Walle et al., 2013):

� Judge the following events as impossible (0), possible (between 0 and 1), or certain (1). Assign
each statement a numerical or fractional answer.

• It will rain tomorrow.
• Drop a rock in water and it will sink.
• A sunflower seed planted today will bloom tomorrow.
• The sun will rise tomorrow morning.
• In an election, candidate A will be elected.
• If you ask someone who the first U.S. president was, he/she will know.
• You will have two birthdays this year.
• You will be in bed by 9 p.m

Create your own probability continuum with a minimum of eight events.

• Be creative
• Include other subject areas and real world events (I live in Houston, Texas)
• List each event in order from impossible (0), possible (between 0 and 1), or certain (1)
• Assign each statement a numerical or fractional answer.

PROBABILITY 2

In 1-2 paragraphs, describe how your probability continuum could guide, enhance, and/or assess
students in your instruction of probability.

References
Van de Walle, J. A., Karp, K. S., & Bay-Williams, J. M. (2013). Elementary and middle school
mathematics: Teaching developmentally (8th ed.). Boston, MA: Pearson Education, Inc.

Word count: 323

Judging the occurrence of events (Van de Walle et al., 2013)

 It will rain tomorrow- 1/2
 Drop a rock in water and it will sink-1
 A sunflower seed planted today will bloom tomorrow-0
 The sun will rise tomorrow morning-1
 If you ask someone who the first U.S. president was he/she would know-1

PROBABILITY 3
 You will have two birthdays this year-0
 You will be in bed by 9 p.m.-1/2

Personal probability continuum
 The local shop will have the juice flavour that I want to buy- 3/4
 Hurricane has devastating effect on people and property-1
 Mexico will build the wall on the border between USA and Mexico-0
 Gravity is present in the moon-1
 Practice makes perfect-1
 If I flip the coin it will land on heads up -1/2
 I will not have to study mathematics in high school- 0
 Today is Friday and tomorrow will be Monday- 0
 Selecting a blue ball from a bag that has 1 blue and 3 yellow balls- 1/4
Student involvement in the probability will help them understand the concept. Students
will draw a probability line and then list the items that are possible to occur on the left,
followed by unlikely, then even chance of occurring in the middle, and the possibility to
occur to the right. The categorization will be based on numerical 1, ¼, ½, ¾, and 0
respectively. The various fractions are used in showing accuracy and precision. This will be
done in the form of a game where the students are divided into groups of three. The group
that gets the correct categorization gets 10 points and a smiley face sticker (Gurbuz et al.,
2014).
In conclusion, the probability is a concept that is easy to understand when the basic
aspects are introduced to students in an interesting manner. This will help the students to use
the fractions to carry out complex analysis of real life problems using probability.

PROBABILITY 4

0 Impossible 1/2 even chance 1Certain

¼ unlikely ¾ Likely

References

Gurbuz, R., Erdem, E., & Uluat, B. (2014). Reflections from the process of game-based
teaching of probability. Hrvatski casopis za odgoj I obrazovanje, 16(Sp.Ed. 3), 109-131.

PROBABILITY 5
Van de Walle, J. A., Karp, K.S., & Bay-Williams, J. M. (2013). Elementary and Middle
School Mathematics: Teaching developmentally (8th.ed). Boston, MA: Pearson Education
Inc.